Alert 191 – Botswana: Voters oust the BDP after nearly six decades in power

by ERA

In an unexpected development, Botswana’s erstwhile opposition coalition, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), decisively won the country’s 30 October general election, winning 36 out of 60 parliamentary seats. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which had governed the country ever since its independence 58 years ago, saw its support collapse and it managed only four parliamentary seats. The BDP is now the fourth-largest party in Botswana behind the UDC, the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), and the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF).

Importantly, the BDP leader and former president Mokgweetsi Masisi accepted the result and conceded defeat on 1 November. This marked an important step for Botswana and highlighted the country’s reputation as a leading democracy in the region. Following Masisi’s concession, UDC leader Duma Boko was sworn in as Botswana’s new president.

The UDC’s decisive victory was driven by widespread discontent with Botswana’s economic trajectory. A combination of poor fiscal governance and a sharp decline in the diamond market resulted in Botswana’s economic growth in 2024 falling to a projected 1% of gross domestic product (GDP), while unemployment rose to 28%, with youth unemployment estimated at 45%. The UDC specifically targeted youth voters and other marginalised communities during its election campaign. This strategy was clearly successful given the higher-than-usual turnout among young voters who largely supported the UDC.

In contrast, the BDP’s campaign was marred by poor management and Masisi’s ongoing feud with his predecessor, Ian Khama. The two men fell out ahead of the 2019 general election, which led Khama to quit the BDP and support the creation of the BPF. This feud has played out in public over the past five years and has been marked by personal attacks and efforts to arrest Khama. Such public fighting and allegations of abuse of power amid Botswana’s worsening economic position further damaged Masisi’s popularity and fuelled voter frustration

It should be noted that the scale of the UDC’s victory has been amplified by Botswana’s constituency-based system. The coalition only secured 37.22% of the popular vote and the BDP actually won the second-highest share of the vote with 30.49%. As such, the BDP has the capacity to rebound from this defeat in 2029 if the UDC fails to deliver on its promises. In the meantime, the BDP will face the existential challenge of transitioning to being a minority opposition party with limited access to systems of patronage.

The incoming Botswanan government is not expected to pursue a drastically different policy agenda. The UDC is not a radical formation and has already indicated its intention to maintain Botswana’s investor-friendly environment. The fact that the UDC has a strong parliamentary majority, and that Boko maintains firm control over the coalition, should ensure policy and governance stability. Boko is a former human rights lawyer and is expected to prioritise social justice issues. This will likely include trying to reform Botswana’s influential security services and increasing the minimum wage, but he will need to prioritise diversifying Botswana’s economy and revenue sources.

However, the incoming government will potentially face challenges in implementing its desired policy agenda. Botswana is continuing to face economic challenges and constrained revenue due to the reduction in the global demand for diamonds. Further, the BDP’s 58-year control of Botswana has resulted in the party’s influence extending deep into the country’s civil service. As such, the UDC could face a high level of turnover in key positions as BDP loyalists leave or even resistance to its agenda within the upper echelons of the public service.

Regardless, this election was a watershed moment for Botswanan politics, marking its emergence as a truly pluralistic state. The peaceful transition of power is the final test faced by any democracy and the fact that Botswana achieved this with minimal disruption will bolster its reputation as a stable democratic state.