Alert 189 – South Africa seeks to salvage US relations ahead of impending review

South Africa’s efforts to improve relations with the United States (US) appear to be making progress following the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) Forum in Washington DC on 24 to 26 July. Trade, Industry, and Competition Minister Parks Tau used his post-forum press briefing to state that South Africa was not at risk of being excluded from the AGOA programme.

This will be a major relief to South African exporters which benefit from the US’s Africa-focused beneficial trade programme. South Africa exports around R60 billion worth of goods every year to the US under the AGOA programme with job-creating industries such as agriculture and automotive manufacturing among the leading beneficiaries. As such, South Africa’s private sector operators were alarmed when the US House of Representatives passed a Bill in June ordering the US government to conduct a full review of its relationship with South Africa.

This review will assess whether South Africa’s international relations undermine US national security interests. Ostensibly this review was called for in response to South Africa’s close relations with US rivals such as China, Russia, and Iran. These ties have long been a source of tension in US-South Africa relations but came to a head in May 2023 when US Ambassador to South Africa made unsubstantiated allegations that South Africa was supplying arms to Russia to use in its war on Ukraine.

Antipathy to South Africa within the US legislature is also driven by South Africa’s decision in December 2023 to lodge a case of genocide against Israel before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over Israel’s war on Gaza. Israel is a close ally of the US and has substantial political influence and lobbying power within the US legislature.

The growing opposition to South Africa in the US House of Representatives was particularly concerning given that AGOA is a congressional Act and is amended and renewed by the House of Representatives. This increased the likelihood of South Africa being excluded compared to if the programme was overseen by the US federal government. Accordingly, Tau’s comments will be welcomed and indicate an easing of hostility towards South Africa by this legislative body.

Notably, this shift is likely due to three factors. First and foremost, the successful lobbying by South Africa’s government and private sector. Secondly, a fundamental shift in global attitudes towards Israel’s actions in Gaza with SA’s ICJ case notably being supported by US allies such as Spain, leading to the increased US circumspection about appearing to take punitive action against South Africa. Finally, South Africa’s new Government of National Unity (GNU) coalition is expected to portend a more balanced foreign and trade policy.

Accordingly, the impending review is not expected to result in a fundamental shift in US-South Africa relations over the medium term. This is partly due to the fact that US President Joe Biden and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken are opposed to any such action. Biden and Blinken are aware that South Africa is an essential partner for the US in Africa and the developing world. South Africa. Further, while South Africa is a major beneficiary of programmes such as AGOA, the US also benefits economically from its relationship with South Africa. South Africa is an important provider of strategic resources such as platinum and palladium.

However, despite the ongoing efforts to calm friction between the US and South Africa, tensions remain in the relationship. Such tensions are expected to continue given South Africa’s continued close ties with BRICS partners such as Russia and China and its continued ICJ against Israel. The Israeli government will also continue to lobby against South Africa in the US aggravating this friction.

These persistent tensions should be of concern to South Africa’s government and private sector given the unpredictability of US politics. The US is holding its presidential and legislative elections on 5 November and the outcome could lead to fundamental policy and paradigm shifts within both the federal government and legislature. If opposition leader former president Donald Trump regains the presidency, the US could adopt a more revanchist and absolutist approach to foreign policy. This, in turn, would limit the US’s tolerance for South Africa’s own foreign policy positions and could result in a deterioration in US-South African diplomatic and trade relations.