Alert 190 – Mozambique’s ruling party set to win general election amid elevated threat of unrest.

Mozambique will hold its national general election on 9 October in which the ruling party, Frelimo, is widely expected to win both the presidential and legislative elections. This is unsurprising given that Frelimo remains the dominant force in Mozambican politics and the current election is occurring at a time when the opposition is more divided than usual.

However, the manner in which the Frelimo-led government and the National Electoral Commission/Comissão Nacional de Eleições (CNE) manage the election will face increased scrutiny. This is due to the CNE’s weak handling of the October 2023 municipal elections which were marred by widespread irregularities and allegations of electoral fraud. In fact, the irregularities were so egregious that the Constitutional Council – Mozambique’s highest court – ended up overturning the election results in four municipalities and ordering election re-runs in four others.

The CNE was accused of rigging the 2023 municipal elections to benefit Frelimo, a fact underscored by the fact that all the alleged and proven election irregularities benefitted the ruling party. Further, the anti-corruption watchdog, the Public Integrity Centre/Centro de Integridade Pública (CIP) claimed that its parallel vote count found that Mozambique’s largest opposition party, Renamo, actually won several more municipal elections including in the capital, Maputo.

As a consequence of the controversial municipal elections, new regulations have been introduced to enhance the transparency of the upcoming general election. However, doubts over whether the election will be free and fair persist. These doubts have helped fuel political tensions between the political parties and increased the threat of civil unrest.

Yet, even if the election is truly free and fair, Frelimo is still expected to win. It is the only party with the resources to have conducted a countrywide campaign and retains the support of most voters in Mozambique. The party is also buoyed by the fact that its candidate, Inhambane governor Daniel Chapo, is scandal-free and portrayed as driving Frelimo’s renewal.

Chapo is Frelimo’s candidate as the incumbent president, Filipe Nyusi, is constitutionally prohibited from contesting a third term. The Inhambane governor was selected as Nyusi’s successor in large part because he is a relative newcomer to Mozambican politics. Importantly, Chapo has no connection to Mozambique’s US$2 billion secret debt scandal. The revelation of this hidden debt in 2016 triggered a budgetary crisis in Mozambique and fuelled deep-seated anger towards Frelimo.

Frelimo is also set to benefit from the ongoing division with Mozambique’s opposition. Renamo could potentially face its worst election yet as a significant number of its supporters appear to have shifted to support independent presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane.

Mondlane is a former Renamo member and was the party’s mayoral candidate for Maputo in the October 2023 municipal elections. He is widely credited with Renamo’s strong performance (and possible victory) in the capital in that election. However, he left Renamo after being prevented from contesting the opposition party’s leadership election and since registered as an independent candidate. His candidacy is supported by two smaller opposition parties, namely the Optimistic Party for the Development of Mozambique/Partido Otimista para o Desenvolvimento de Moçambique (PODEMOS) and the Democratic Revolution/Revolução Democrática (RD). PODEMOS and RD are breakaway groups from Frelimo and Renamo respectively.

Mondlane has drawn significant support during the campaign period, especially in major urban areas and among young voters. His rallies have been well-attended, and his presidential campaign has overshadowed that of Renamo leader Ossufo Momade. This has raised the possibility that Mondlane might outperform Momade and present the primary challenge to Chapo in the presidential election. As such, this poses a serious concern to Renamo, as any sign that it is no longer the true political opposition is an existential threat to the party.

Mondlane’s popularity is also expected to bolster support for PODEMOS which is viewed as his main backer. This could lead PODEMOS to secure its first-ever legislative seats in either the Assembly of the Republic or in one of the provincial assemblies. Regardless, this will come at the expense of Renamo and Momade. Hence, it is possible that Renamo will once again fail to win control of a provincial assembly leading to greater disillusionment with Momade’s leadership and questions about Renamo’s viability as an effective opposition.

It should be noted that Mondlane is a confrontational politician and has already accused Frelimo and the CNE of malfeasance. If the 9 October election is marred by any irregularities, there is a strong possibility that Mondlane will dispute the result. Political tensions are already elevated in Mozambique with several incidents of political violence, such as intimidation and inter-party clashes, being reported. Any challenge to the election result will aggravate these tensions further.  This would lead to protests similar to those which occurred following the disputed 2023 municipal election. Any such protests will lead to clashes with Mozambican security forces which would, in turn, fuel further unrest.