Alert 187 – Government of National Unity to usher in a new era of South African politics

Cyril Ramaphosa is set to be re-inaugurated as president of South Africa on 19 June. The inauguration is taking place after Ramaphosa was re-elected as president by the National Assembly on 14 June despite the African National Congress (ANC) losing its governing majority in the 29 May general election. The ANC only secured 159 seats in the National Assembly, well below the 201 seats required to form a government.

Faced with this prospect the ANC was forced to seek coalition partners. It should be noted that the ANC remains the dominant force in South African politics and was the only party that had a viable path to forming a coalition government in the wake of the election. After widespread speculation about who the ANC would elect to partner with, Ramaphosa announced on 6 June that it would seek to form a government of national unity (GNU) rather than a simple coalition agreement.

The decision to pursue a GNU achieved several objectives. Firstly, such an approach plays to Ramaphosa’s strengths and belief in consensus building; secondly, a GNU will, in theory, reduce political instability, and finally, it allowed Ramaphosa to move forward without needing to address the dispute within the ANC over who was the preferred coalition partner.

The party was split into two factions, one favouring a deal with the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), arguing that such a formation would provide policy and governance stability; while the second faction favoured a tie-up with either the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) or the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), contending there were greater ideological similarities with these ANC breakaway parties.

Accordingly, the ANC held talks with nearly all the parties represented in the National Assembly but discussions with the DA, MKP, and the IFP dominated these engagements due to these parties’ size on a national and provincial level. As a result of the election, the ANC needed to partner with at least one of either the DA, MKP, or EFF to secure the necessary majority in the National Assembly.

However, discussions with the MKP and EFF quickly collapsed. The MKP – which is headed by former president Jacob Zuma – demanded that any deal required Ramaphosa to resign as president; a demand which the ANC naturally refused to entertain. Regardless, any partnership with the MKP would likely have been unworkable given that party’s antipathy towards the constitution. Similarly, negotiations with EFF failed to progress after that party’s leaders demanded major positions such as the Speaker of the National Assembly and Finance Minister despite securing less than 10% of the vote. The ANC was also unwilling to entertain these demands.

This left the DA as the ANC’s last viable partner with whom to anchor the GNU. The two parties have long-standing policy and personality differences but are at their core centrist organisations. As a result, the two parties, along with the IFP, managed to draw up a Statement of Intent document before the National Assembly was sworn in on 14 June. This document was subsequently signed by the Patriotic Alliance (PA) and the GOOD party, bringing the total number of parties set to participate in the GNU up to five. As evidence of their planned power sharing, the DA supported the ANC’s Thoko Didiza as the new National Assembly Speaker while the ANC backed the DA’s Annelie Lotriet as the deputy speaker.

This intent to cooperate was evidenced during the first sitting of the provincial assemblies in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) where no party secured a meaningful majority and the speaker and deputy speaker positions were divided among the ANC, DA, and IFP. This was most notable in KZN, where three parties formed a coalition along with the National Freedom Party (NFP) and successfully kept the MKP out of power in that province despite it being the largest party in the provincial legislature. The IFP’s Thami Nthuli was elected premier.

Following the swearing-in of parliament, these parties released the GNU statement of intent which revealed that Ramaphosa will appoint cabinet ministers and deputy ministers from all participating parties in the GNU and that any major decision will need to be collectively supported. In addition, the GNU members will hold a strategy session in the coming weeks to develop an agreed policy agenda for the coming term.

The 29 May election was a watershed moment for South African politics. It marked the end of majoritarian rule in the country and ushered in the age of coalitions. Such political formations will now be the norm going forward. This was highlighted by the 13 June creation of the Progressive Caucus – a six-party opposition alliance largely led by the EFF which is expected to also include the MKP.

Accordingly, South Africa is set to be governed by a large centrist majority coalition while the opposition will consist of an alliance of extremist political parties. In addition, the need for the GNU to find a common policy agenda will likely need a simple pragmatic approach to governance and legislation with a heavier emphasis on governance. Notably, the anticipated appointment of cabinet ministers from former opposition parties will also lead to a much heavier emphasis on governance and implementation given that these parties can be judged on the performance of the respective ministries which they control.

The creation of the GNU has been generally favourably received. Illustrative of this, the South African Rand has strengthened by almost 4.5% since Ramaphosa first announced plans for a GNU while the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) has seen similarly strong activity.

However, there remain threats to the viability of the GNU. These includes potential disagreements over the allocations of cabinet positions and securing consensus over a policy agenda. However, the ANC and DA have both invested substantial political capital into this planned coalition government and as such are incentivised to ensure that it works.