Alert 186 – Mozambique: Frelimo elects presidential candidate

The Central Committee of Mozambique’s ruling party, Frelimo, on 5 May, selected Inhambane governor Daniel Chapo as its candidate for the upcoming 9 October general election after an extraordinary meeting that had lasted for three days. Chapo was elected unopposed in the second round of voting after emerging as the clear favourite after he led the first round of voting with 103 votes to 77 for his nearest rival, Frelimo General Secretary Frelimo, Roque Silva. Silva, who resigned after his defeat, was followed by Frelimo parliamentarian Francisco Mucanheia in third place with 46 votes, while the speaker of the Mozambican parliament, Esperança Bias, only picked up three votes.

Chapo is expected to be elected as Mozambique’s next president in October given Frelimo’s dominance over Mozambique’s politics. He is also now the frontrunner to succeed President Filipe Nyusi as party leader when Nyusi’s current term ends in 2027. Notably, Chapo’s election was largely unexpected as he was not considered one of the frontrunners nor among the preferred candidates of the various factions within Frelimo. As such, it appears that he emerged as a compromise candidate – someone who was not seen as overly affiliated or indebted to any particular faction.

Importantly, Chapo is a comparatively young leader. The 47-year-old governor previously worked as a constitutional law lecturer and a journalist before entering public service in 2005. His first significant role in government was as an administrator in Palma district (Cabo Delgado province) to which he was appointed in 2015. Shortly afterwards, he was appointed as the governor of Inhambane province in 2016, a role he has held ever since. The fact that Chapo had no prior experience in Mozambican national politics nor served in the cabinet likely benefited his candidacy. He is viewed as uncontaminated by any of the various political scandals that occurred in recent years, most importantly, he was in no way implicated in the country’s illegal debt scandal. By appointing a relatively unknown figure who has never been implicated in a major scandal, Frelimo will manage to deflect some of the public anger over corruption ahead of the upcoming general election.

Furthermore, Chapo is originally from Sofala province in central Mozambique. Sofala is one of the more electorally competitive provinces in Mozambique. The country’s two largest opposition parties – Renamo and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) – both enjoy strong support in the province. Frelimo’s Central Committee is likely hoping that its choice of Chapo as its presidential candidate will help it defend its control of Sofala and other central provinces.

Aside from his ties to Sofala and his comparatively clean political reputation, Chapo is not expected to have a notable impact on Frelimo’s general election strategy. The ruling party has a large and effective electoral machine which will be directed by the party’s Political Commission and Central Committee. Chapo also has not had time to cement the necessary political capital to have such an impact as yet.

Instead, the impact of Chapo’s election will be felt within Frelimo itself. He is assumed to be the next Mozambican president and Frelimo party leader. Accordingly, the centre of power in Frelimo will shift from Nyusi to Chapo in the coming months. Nyusi will be under pressure to resign as party leader after Chapo’s inauguration to prevent the emergence of a power struggle within the party. Nyusi’s predecessor Armando Guebuza faced similar pressure and resigned in 2015 to enable the presidency and party leadership to be unified under Nyusi.

However, Nyusi has a history of wanting to hold onto power. He attempted and failed to lobby the Central Committee to support amending the constitution to allow him to contest a third presidential term. The incumbent president also retains strong influence within the party and, accordingly, it is feasible that he could try to see out the remainder of his tenure as Frelimo leader. If he does, it will lead to a power struggle within the party with Chapo as the (likely) new president seeks to establish himself while Nyusi seeks to continue to govern from Frelimo’s headquarters.

Nyusi will likely lose any such struggle. His failure to convince Frelimo to support him for a third term and his subsequent inability to have any of his preferred candidates selected as the party’s presidential candidate confirms his influence within the ruling party is limited and waning. Accordingly, Nyusi will likely eventually step down as party leader even if he does not do it in January after Chapo’s likely inauguration.

As for Chapo himself, it is currently unclear what kind of leader he will be. Inhambane province has been comparatively well governed during his tenure as governor. Although he has never served in cabinet, he has had more practical governing experience as a sitting provincial governor. However, his low profile and comparatively young age have made him somewhat of an unknown. This will become clearer in the coming months, especially as he builds alliances and allegiances within Frelimo.