Alert 183 – DRC to hold elections amid conflict and uncertainty

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is set to hold its presidential, legislative, and provincial elections countrywide on 20 December. These elections are taking place amid an environment of heightened uncertainty marked by logistical challenges and an ongoing conflict in the country’s eastern regions.

Incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi is running for re-election hoping to secure another five-year term in which to complete his agenda as well as dispel any doubts about his legitimacy that arose from his disputed 2018 election victory. He is facing a crowded electoral field comprised of 21 presidential candidates including himself. However, Tshisekedi’s main challengers are former ExxonMobil executive Martin Fayulu who many of Tshisekedi’s detractors believe was the true winner in 2018; Moise Katumbi, the popular former governor of Katanga province; and Congolese Nobel laureate, Dr Deni Mukwege. These four men are expected to secure the overwhelming majority of votes in the presidential election.

As it stands, Tshisekedi and Katumbi are viewed as the presidential frontrunners, especially after four former presidential candidates announced their support for Katumbi and his Ensemble pour le changement (Together for Change) political party. Under the DRC’s electoral system, the winner does not require an absolute majority but only to secure the largest number of votes. As such, it is likely that whoever wins the 20 December election will do so without a majority mandate

Election challenges

The DRC is a vast, underdeveloped state, and as such organising national elections is a complex operation. This has been compounded by the country’s lack of transport infrastructure and the ongoing conflict in the North Kivu and Ituri regions in the country’s East. This conflict has escalated over the past year with the M23 rebel group (which DRC officials claim is backed by Rwanda) seizing territory and conducting attacks in these regions.

As such, it will be almost impossible for the election to take place in these conflict-affected areas. Furthermore, any polling station in the North Kivu and Ituri regions carries a high risk of being targeted by one or more of the many anti-government militant groups in the area.

These structural challenges have been further compounded by the Independent National Elections Commission’s (CENI) poor preparations. CENI only received the last shipment of electoral materials on 8 December. The commission now needs to distribute these materials – including ballots – to over 75,000 polling stations spread across the DRC. This needs to be achieved despite the absence of a countrywide road network. As such, CENI has requested that the national government provide aircraft to facilitate the distribution of these materials.

CENI has been further criticised for the poor quality of the voter cards rolled out for the elections many of which are reportedly illegible and unusable. This has raised fears that the election will be even more vulnerable to fraud and irregularities.

To postpone or not postpone?

The ongoing conflict in eastern DRC and CENI’s poor preparations have led to widespread speculation that the election will need to be postponed at the eleventh hour. Opposition candidates appear to largely be in favour of such a delay in the belief that the current situation benefits Tshisekedi. Yet, the election will likely proceed as planned. This is due to the fact that the government and ruling coalition are adamant that the vote should take place and the fact that there is significant international pressure to ensure that the election is not delayed. As such the election will most likely proceed on 20 December even if multiple voting stations do not have ballots or the election cannot be held due to an ongoing conflict.

Anticipated outcomes

This environment of uncertainty and poor preparations practically ensures that the result of the election will be disputed regardless of the outcome. However, unless there is clear evidence of egregious electoral fraud the election result will likely be upheld by the DRC’s courts and accepted by the international community. The DRC’s security, economic, and developmental partners are eager for the election to be a success and will be willing to overlook some electoral irregularities in the pursuit of increased stability in the country. This is due to the DRC’s pivotal role as the world’s largest producer of cobalt and its vast reserves of other essential minerals. However, the fact that the election result is likely to be disputed means that there is a strong possibility of post-election unrest. Supporters of the losing candidates will likely stage protests to which DRC security forces will respond in a heavy-handed manner leading to injuries and even fatalities.

At present, Tshisekedi will likely win re-election. He benefits from his control over the levers of state and appears to have built a larger support base over the past five years. However, he is unlikely to secure over 50% of the vote meaning that he will not have a popular mandate. As such, he will likely need to expand his governing coalition in the country’s legislature to continue to govern effectively and maintain his legitimacy.