Alert 180 – Gabon’s Bongo deposed in continent’s latest coup

Gabon’s long-time leader Ali Bongo was deposed in a military coup on 30 August ending over 56 years of the Bongo family’s rule over the central African country. The coup was led by General Brice Oligui Nguema, the head of the country’s Republican Guard, who has since been installed as the country’s interim president. Ironically as the then-head of the Republican Guard’s intelligence wing, the Directorate General of Special Services, Nguema was instrumental in helping Bongo survive the January 2019 attempted coup.

The long-term underlying causes of the coup are manifold. Gabon is afflicted with entrenched corruption with the perception that the Bongo family has misappropriated much of the country’s natural resource wealth in their decades-long rule. This lack of development and wealth concentration in the hands of the Bongos and their allies has long fuelled societal frustration in the country. The growing resentment within the Gabonese population was illustrated in the wake of the August 2016 general election which Bongo was widely viewed to have stolen. The deposed leader’s Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG) beat the opposition Union of Forces for Change (UFC) led by former African Union (AU) chairperson Jean Ping by 1.57%. Ping and the UFC rejected the results leading to widespread protests, the largest of which were in the capital Libreville.

The instigating event for the 30 August coup appears to have been the recent 26 August general election. The build-up to the election had been marked by claims of electoral malfeasance and Bongo ordered that internet services in Gabon be deactivated on the day of the vote. On 30 August, the coup leaders seized control and arrested Bongo shortly after the electoral authorities declared the President as the interim winner of the election claiming that he had secured 64.27% of the vote. The Republic Guard appeared to believe it was an opportune moment to seize power and arguably prevented the anticipated post-election unrest. Military officials declared that the election results were cancelled, Gabon’s borders had been closed, and unessential state institutions had been dissolved; although, notably, the military ordered that the internet be restored.

Significantly, the coup appears to have been welcomed by a large portion of the population, especially Gabon’s urban youth. This is likely due to the perception that the putschists intervened to prevent an illegitimate election. This support – or more importantly the lack of pro-government demonstrators – highlights Bongo’s unpopularity. Furthermore, it is likely the perception of Bongo as a kleptocrat which has resulted in a generally tepid response to his ousting. Global powers have released statements ‘noting concern’ and opposing military takeovers in general but few have vociferously called for his reinstatement as what occurred following the July military coup in Niger.

The fact that Gabon is the latest in a series of African countries to experience a military coup seems to be the larger worry rather than Bongo’s ousting. Gabon is the eighth African state to experience a military takeover since 2020, and the seventh francophone state. This has led to fears of contagion and the spectre of further putsches. Notably, many of the coups have been welcomed by significant portions of the respective countries highlighting the deep public frustration with perceived corruption and poor governance in the region. The fall of so many Francophone governments that retain close ties to France further underscores the failure of France’s security-centric Africa policy and the collapse of the former colonial power’s influence in the region. As yet, none of these coups have been successfully reversed despite efforts ranging from economic sanctions, border closures, and even threats of armed intervention. As such, this Gabon coup could presage further military takeovers, particularly in Francophone West and Central Africa.

In practical terms, it is unclear how disruptive the coup will be to Gabon in the long run. Notably, Nguema is reportedly Bongo’s cousin. As such, the new interim leader – who grew up the son of a senior military officer – has established ties to Gabon’s ruling elite. As such, while the immediate Bongo family will likely be stripped of power with the ousted president facing imprisonment or exile, there is unlikely to be any radical societal or economic change. Nguema is expected to soon announce a transitional plan for the country which will likely include some form of a pledge to a return to civilian rule. However, any such plan will likely ensure that the military and the current ruling elite retain their influence over the country. The only point of uncertainty remaining is whether the AU or the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) will take any punitive steps such as implementing sanctions on the new interim military junta. However, such measures can be easily weathered as evidenced by the seven other governments which emerged because of coups in the past three years.